Prefabricated dishes are still at the forefront of the food industry.

In the first half of this year, topics such as "New Year's Eve prefabricated dishes," "prefabricated dishes in schools," and "315 exposure of braised pork with preserved vegetables" frequently topped social media trends, followed by a plethora of discussions, controversies, and criticisms.

Despite this, prefabricated dishes continue to capture the market at an astonishing speed.

According to iMedia Research data, the market size of China's prefabricated dish industry in 2023 is 516.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.1%. In the future, "China's prefabricated dish market is expected to maintain a high growth rate, and it is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026."

From an industry perspective, the industrialization of food is an inevitable trend, and standardized, efficient prefabricated foods are its representative products.

What "DT Business Observation" is curious about is: under such a major trend, how do consumers view prefabricated dishes? Where is the "threshold" that people can accept? And what insights do these provide for brands?

Last month, we initiated a small survey on "Can you accept prefabricated dishes?" This time, using quantitative research methods, we collected a total of 1,767 valid samples, of which 500 samples came from Kure Data.

Advertisement

Below are the specific findings of this survey.

In the eyes of consumers, what exactly are prefabricated dishes?

It is necessary to first clarify what "prefabricated dishes" mainly include in this survey.In March of this year, six departments issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Safety Supervision of Pre-cooked Food Safety and Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Industry." For the first time, it clearly defined pre-cooked food from the national level, which is actually a relatively narrow definition, excluding quick-frozen foods from the category of pre-cooked food:

"Pre-cooked food refers to pre-packaged dishes that can be consumed after heating or cooking, and does not include staple food products, such as quick-frozen rice and noodle products, instant foods, boxed meals, bento boxes, steamed buns, pastries, Roujiamo, bread, hamburgers, sandwiches, pizzas, etc."

In the past, the industry often divided pre-cooked food into four major categories, which are:

- Ready-to-eat food: Open the bag and eat directly, such as eight-treasure porridge, canned food, marinated dishes, etc.;

- Ready-to-heat food: Requires heating before consumption, such as quick-frozen dumplings, instant noodles, etc.;

- Ready-to-cook food: Processed with flavoring, coating, pre-frying, etc., and requires cooking in a pot, such as pickled fish, Buddha jumps over the wall, preserved vegetable braised pork, beef ribs, etc.;

- Ready-to-prepare food: Cleaned, washed, cut, and packaged vegetables, such as shredded vegetables, prime cuts of steak, fish fillets, etc.

From the survey results, consumers' definition of pre-cooked food mainly includes the first three types in the industry definition:

- 85% of respondents believe that ready-to-cook dishes like crispy pork with pickled cabbage are considered pre-cooked food;

- 71.1% of respondents define ready-to-heat foods such as quick-frozen dumplings and convenience store boxed meals as pre-cooked food, and 56.2% of respondents also include ready-to-eat foods like eight-treasure porridge in the scope of pre-cooked food.It should be emphasized that in broader daily discussions (such as the comment section of "DT Business Review"), disputes may arise due to differing definitions of pre-packaged meals.

However, in this survey, there is little difference in the definition of pre-packaged meals among people of different genders, ages, and city tiers. Therefore, when conducting cross-analysis of specific issues, it is essentially unaffected by the influence of "different choices due to different definitions of pre-packaged meals."

Next, let's first look at the acceptance of pre-packaged meals in different scenarios.

Over 90% of people accept pre-packaged meals, with the highest acceptance in outdoor camping scenarios.

Despite the significant opposition on social media, the proportion of people who do not accept pre-packaged meals in any scenario is only 9.1%, less than one-tenth.

The key point of whether people accept it or not lies in the scenario and the situation in which it is consumed. For example, for the "New Year's Eve pre-packaged meal" scenario that made headlines at the beginning of the year, more than 80% of people do not accept it, but the acceptance is much higher for daily meals or late-night snacks.

Data shows that people have the highest acceptance of consuming pre-packaged meals in outdoor camping scenarios, accounting for 52.8%.

In fact, since the outdoor craze began in 2022, the trend of "camping + pre-packaged meals" has started to rise. Camping food has evolved from the common snacks and canned goods of the past to today's barbecue, hot pot, pizza, and various self-heating instant meals.

Brands have also successively launched related categories: Hema Xiansheng introduced the "Bag Carry Barbecue" series in 2022, Guoquan Food Exchange launched "Camping Can Hot Pot" and "Guoquan Crayfish" for camping scenarios in 2023, and Dingdong Maicai also has a special outdoor camping meal package.Looking at the population, the acceptance of pre-packaged meals is higher among people in high-tier cities. In comparison, their acceptance of having pre-packaged meals for all three meals (breakfast, lunch, and dinner) is significantly higher than that of people in fourth and fifth-tier cities.

When examining by age group, there is a clear difference between the group under 35 years old (Generation Z, Post-95s, Post-90s) and the group aged 35 and above (Post-85s, Post-80s), particularly in the context of breakfast. The latter group has a lower acceptance of pre-packaged meals for breakfast.

This may be related to the different life rhythms of people in various age groups. A Post-95s individual, @Lu Li, commutes every day at "eight in the morning," and her breakfast is basically solved by the convenience stores near her company; a Post-90s individual, @Tian Tian, in order to save time, will buy frozen pastries for breakfast: "It's already good enough to be willing to spend time on breakfast, who cares whether it's made on the spot or not."

Lower-tier cities have a higher budget for pre-packaged meals in restaurants.

On social platforms, a major controversy about pre-packaged meals revolves around public dining places: whether school cafeterias and shopping mall restaurants should offer pre-packaged meals.

Some time ago, we analyzed the food traceability incident of Lao Xiang Ji and concluded from social media data that the positive evaluations of pre-packaged meals mainly revolve around the delicious taste, while the negative evaluations are mainly the negative cases exposed during the 315 period, such as "槽头肉" (a type of meat) and "梅菜扣肉" (a traditional Chinese dish).

However, the most common are actually neutral evaluations, focusing on "informed consent": for example, openly labeling pre-packaged meals, traceable ingredients, etc.

This survey also came to a similar conclusion, that in addition to basic safety and health, it is more important to openly label the degree of pre-packaging, allowing consumers to be informed.Beyond the right to be informed, more than 30% of people believe that if cafeterias, restaurants, and similar places use pre-packaged meals, the prices should be reduced.

Education blogger @LiuXiaoGuang_DemonDad also pointed out this issue on Weibo, citing an example:

"I used to order a fried egg, freshly fried, for 3 yuan each. The cost of an egg is 1 yuan each, and the labor operation averages to 1 yuan per time, so the merchant earns 1 yuan from me, which I think is acceptable.

But now when I go again, it's still a fried egg, but they give me a pre-packaged meal. A pre-packaged fried egg on Taobao is 0.8 yuan each, and it's even cheaper in bulk, as low as 0.7 or 0.6 yuan. The cost used to be 2 yuan, but now it's only 0.8 yuan. So shouldn't the price be reduced to sell it to me for 1.5 yuan? Quite the contrary.

It still sells for 3 yuan. The merchant used to earn 1 yuan, but now they are making a tearful profit of 2.2 yuan from me, doubling their profit. This is the problem with pre-packaged meals: I pay the same price as before, but I receive a quality that is much worse than before.

Pre-packaged meals entering campuses is the same principle, and there will be no reduction in campus meal prices. Moreover, the above is based on the assumption that 'pre-packaged meals are completely hygienic and there is no need to worry about food safety issues.'"

We further inquired in our survey about everyone's budget for eating pre-packaged meals in these venues.

An interesting conclusion is that most people in first-tier, new first-tier, and second-tier cities are willing to accept eating pre-packaged meals in restaurants, but with a low budget, with over 95% of people only willing to accept pre-packaged meals at or below 50 yuan.

Conversely, although the cost of living in lower-tier cities is lower, respondents from third, fourth, and fifth-tier cities have a higher budget for eating pre-packaged meals in restaurants/cafeterias.

Although a quarter of people do not accept eating pre-packaged meals in restaurants/cafeterias, about 60% of people have an upper limit price of 50 yuan or more for "one meal of pre-packaged food," and about a quarter of people have an upper limit price of 100 yuan or more.This may indirectly support the trend of the collective "sinking" of the catering industry in the past two years: in terms of eating and drinking, the consumption power of lower-tier cities is actually not low.

From Starbucks and Haidilao's collective "sinking" to the proliferation of snack shops in county towns, young people in big cities are still counting every penny and buying discounted food from Hema and OLE after 8 pm, while the affluent and leisurely youth in fourth and fifth-tier cities are not at all hesitant when it comes to "buying, buying, buying."

The "2024 Spring Festival 'Eat, Drink, and Have Fun' Consumption Insight Report" released by Meituan points out that this year, during the Spring Festival, the consumption growth rate in areas below the fourth tier was the fastest, and the sinking market has become the "new engine" to stimulate holiday economic growth.

According to McKinsey's forecast: "By 2030, China's personal consumption scale will grow to $65.3 trillion, with more than 66% of the growth coming from third-tier and below cities."

48.8% of people have actively purchased ready-to-cook pre-prepared meals, with price and taste outweighing nutritional value.

After discussing the level of acceptance, let's look at the consumer situation of pre-prepared meals in the C-end market.

According to the China Business Intelligence Network, the current pre-prepared meal market in China is mainly sold to B-end customers, with C-end accounting for about 15%. However, with the change in consumption concepts and habits, as well as the rise of emerging retail methods such as live-streaming sales, fresh e-commerce, and community group buying, "in the future, C-end brands will become a strong force driving the growth of the pre-prepared meal market."

In this survey, a total of 1,767 respondents participated, of which 1,637 have purchased different types of pre-prepared foods.

According to the degree of preparation, the highest purchase rate is for ready-to-heat foods represented by frozen dumplings and ready-to-eat foods represented by canned Babao porridge.Even according to the "pre-cooked meals" (which can be understood as commonly referred to as meal kits) as stipulated by national standards, 48.8% of the population has actively purchased them.

There are many reasons for not buying pre-cooked meals: some people "just like to eat freshly made" (46.9%), some think that the quality of pre-cooked meals is "hard to guarantee" (45.4%), and others worry that pre-cooked meals are "unhealthy" (43.8%).

However, the main reason people buy pre-cooked meals generally points to the same one: "time and effort saving" (87.7%).

Because of this, in specific purchasing decisions, when safety, hygiene, and the quality of ingredients are fundamentally guaranteed, most people, especially young groups like those born after 2000 and 1995, care more about cost-effectiveness, taste, and convenience of consumption, rather than nutritional value and brand.

In other words, for the C-end (consumer end), pre-cooked meals are the third solution in the home dining scenario, in addition to cooking and ordering takeout. They are an alternative or supplement to the kitchen and takeout:

Their advantage lies in being more convenient than cooking by oneself, and cleaner/tastier/cheaper than takeout.

Nearly 80% of people purchase offline, and single items from chain restaurants are also recommended.

Looking at the channels through which people buy pre-cooked meals, traditional offline retail stores such as supermarkets and farmers' markets are still the mainstream channels, with 79.1% of people choosing them. The top three online channels are: Dingdong Grocery, Hema and other fresh food e-commerce platforms, and Taobao Tmall and JD.com.

In terms of single-item categories, the ranking of the most purchased pre-cooked meals and the most re-purchased pre-cooked meals is basically the same, with the top three being hot pot ingredients, barbecue ingredients, and crispy fried pork.From a branding perspective, based on the over 200 valid responses collected from the subjective fill-in-the-blank question "Do you have any recommended pre-packaged menu items or brands?", the recommended pre-packaged food brands are primarily categorized into three types:

1. Pre-packaged food/frozen food brands, such as Anjoy, CP Group, and Sinian;

2. Pre-packaged foods launched by chain restaurants: such as KFC, Haidilao, and Tai Er Pickled Fish;

3. Self-operated pre-packaged foods from fresh food e-commerce platforms/retailer stores, such as Hema, Sam's Club, and Dingdong Grocery.

The way these brands reach C-end consumers varies. Leading pre-packaged food brands like Anjoy, although mainly focused on B-end business, are also perceived by C-end consumers due to their early market entry and extensive offline distribution channels.

The pre-packaged food brand "Dingding Lazy Man's Food," established in 2020, has specialized in the Douyin channel and achieved a scale of around 1 billion yuan.

Self-operated pre-packaged foods on Hema and Dingdong Grocery have also been frequently mentioned.

It is worth noting that in 2023, Dingdong Grocery announced with fanfare an increase in investment in the pre-packaged food sector, launching the "Pre-packaged Food Partner" recruitment plan; in the same year, Hema's pre-packaged food division became a first-level department alongside imports and private labels, with both companies estimating a pre-packaged food sales target of 5 billion yuan for 2023.

Additionally, another type of pre-packaged food is frequently recommended, which is the pre-packaged food from chain restaurant brands:Not only were brands like KFC, McDonald's, Haidilao, Tai Er Pickled Fish, and Xibei nominated, but even suppliers such as Sunner, which provides chicken products to KFC, and Meihuo, which supplies crispy pork to Haidilao, were also prominently listed.

From this perspective, today's consumers indeed do not change their color at the mention of pre-cooked dishes or dismiss them outright. When brands ensure safety and deliciousness, consumers will actively repurchase or spontaneously recommend them.